Personally, I'd go with oil temp. But then again I run a PAO/POE based Group IV/V synthetic and go 12,000 miles between changes. I'm hardly the average auto owner.
However I will point out that all of my Supras run like new, even the ones where I went over 300,000 miles...
One thing to consider is it takes your oil anywhere from 10 to 20 minutes longer to warm up after the water is at operating temp. This is why you'll hear many people tell you that you should wait 10 minutes before going WOT in a turbo car after the coolant is up to temp.
Remember while water cools some areas, oil cools everything. Also keep in mind that your oil has the role of keeping the temperature of various components of the valve train at tolerable levels. Valve springs, stems, tips, followers, etc all depend on oil to carry away heat. Engines like the 7M-GTE and 2JZ-GTE use use oil via the sprayers for direct cooling of pistons as well.
Another thing to keep in mind is that cools things in multiple ways. One is by simply carrying away heat as it circulates. The other is by providing the conductor to move heat quickly from one surface and/or engine part to another.
Remember when looking at muti-grade oils (I run Royal Purple 5w-30 btw..) the first number is the 'cold' viscosity. This is an indicator of how the oil will flow when cold. The second number is the 'hot' viscosity or the viscosity of the oil at operating temp. If you to look at your specific oil's data sheet, you'll find how it flows when cold and how it flows at temp. You'll also be able to tell when it's exceeding it's thermal limits.
Search for posts by Jdub about motor oil. The man can teach you more about it than you ever wanted to know.
Also courtesy of Jdub, here are some links worth reading:
http://www.supramania.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31789
http://63.240.161.99/motoroil/
http://physicsweb.org/articles/world/15/2/7
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF7/747.html
http://www.nordicgroup.us/oil.htm#I...ows better when cold, i.e. 5W30 versus 10W30?
After reading all that, you tell me which measurement you'd want to keep an eye on...